Prediction Analysis of Company Bangkruptcy Using Comparison of the Altman Method (Z-score) and Grover Method (G-scrore) as an Early Warning System in Pharmaceutical Subsector Companies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30588/jmp.v12i2.1472Keywords:
Altman, Grover, Bankcruptcy, Level of accuracy, PredictionAbstract
Pharmaceutical companies are part of the manufacturing sub-sector of the health sector, at the end of 2019 the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus weakened the country's economic sector, so this was also felt by pharmaceutical companies. The outbreak of the Covid-19 virus has created high market demand for medicines and medical devices, this has increased raw materials because 90% of pharmaceutical raw materials in Indonesia are still imported, as a result, if company management does not act immediately, this will lead to bankruptcy. The research objective is to predict the bankruptcy of pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2019-2021 by using a comparison of the Altman method (Z-Score) and the Grover method (G-Score). Using a type of quantitative research using secondary data from the annual financial reports of pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for 2019-2021. The data collection technique uses a saturated sample technique using data analysis, namely the Altman method (Z-Score) and the Grover method (G-Score). The results show that from the annual calculations using the Altman method, there are 6 companies in healthy condition and 3 companies in distress and gray areas, while the Grover method calculates that all companies, namely 9 companies, are declared to be in financially healthy condition with 27 samples of data for 2019-2021. In calculating the level of accuracy, the Altman method obtains an accuracy of 77.7%, while the Grover method obtains an accuracy of 100% by looking at the number of correct predictions and the entire sample.References
Ananto, R. S., Sriyunianti, F., Ferdawati. (2020). Prediksi Financial Distress dengan Menggunakan Model Fulmer (Studi pada PT Semen Padang Periode 2014-2018). Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Dharma Andalas, 22(1), 110-119.
Anita V, W. & Widyawti, N. L. (2018). Analisis Potensi Kebangkrutan dengan Metode Springate pada Perusahaan Properti dan Real Estate yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen, 12(2), 89-99.
Cattleyana, D., Iqbal, A., Asyriana, S. (2020). Analisis Kesehatan Keuangan Perusahaan Plat Merah Tahun 2009-2018. Jurnal Sains Manajemen dan Bisnis Indonesia, 10(2), 187-193. https://doi.org/10.32528/jsmbi.v10i2.4113.
Choiruddin, C. & Aksara, H. D. (2021). Analisis Kebangkrutan dengan Menggunakan Model Springate pada PT Semen Baturaja (Persero), Tbk. Jurnal Akuntanika, 7(1), 2407-1072.
Fahma, Y. S. & Setyaningsih N. D. (2019). Analisis Financial Distrees dengan Metode Altman, Zmijewski, Grover, Springate, Ohlson, dan Zavgren untuk Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Ritel. Jurnal Ilmiah Bisnis dan Ekonomi Asia, 15(2), 200-216. https://doi.org/10.32815/jibeka.v15i2.398.
Fahmi, I. (2012). Analisis Laporan Keuangan (2nd ed.). Bandung: Alfabeta.
Fitra, S. (2020). Katadata, 5 Oktober. Retrieved November 19, 2022 from: https://www.google.com/amp/s/katadata.co.id/amp/safrezifitra/finansial/5f7c09e484bf8/industri-farmasi-di-tengah-pandemi-untung-atau-buntung.
Ghozali, I. (2015). Analisis Multivariate dengan Program SPSS. Semarang: Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Gupita, N., Soemoedipiro, S.W., Soebroto, N.W. (2020). Analisis Perbandingan Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski,dan Grover dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress (Studi pada Perusahaan Sektor Infrastruktur yang Terdaftar di BEI Periode 2015-2019). Jurnal Aktual Akuntansi Keuangan Bisnis Terapan (AKUNBISNIS), 3(1), 145-162. http://dx.doi.org/10.32497/akunbisnis.v3i2.2148.
Harapah, S. (2018). Analisis Kritis Atas Laporan Keuangan. Jakarta: Rajawali Pers.
Hartanto, R. & Dwidjosumarno, B. H. S. (2018). Analisis Financial Distress untuk Memprediksi Risiko Kebangkrutan pada Perusahaan Farmasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu dan Riset Manajemen, 7(12), 1-19.
Hasan, S. E. (2022). Manajemen Keuangan. Widina.
Hery, S. (2015). Analisis Kinerja Manajemen. Gramedia Widiasarana Indonesia.
Iqbal, A. & Asyriana, S. (2020). Deteksi Kesehatan Keuangan Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) Menggunakan Financial Discriminant Models. Jurnal ASET (Akuntansi Riset), 12(2), 289-300. https://doi.org/10.17509/jaset.v12i2.28072.
Kadafi, M. A. (2019). Evaluasi Potensi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak dan Gas Bumi Indonesia Periode 2013-2015. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Akuntansi, 21(2), 154-164. https://doi.org/10.30872/jfor.v21i2.6142.
Kasmir, K. (2018). Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Depok: Rajawali Press.
Kason, K., Angkasa, C., Gozali Y., Wijaya, R. A., Hutahean, T. F. (2020). Analisis Perbandingan Keakuratan Memprediksi Financial Distress dengan Menggunakan Model Grover, Springate, dan Altman Z-Score pada Perusahaan Pertambangan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada Tahun 2013-2017. JIMEA:Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, dan Akuntansi), 4(3), 441-458. http://10.31955/mea.vol4.iss3.pp441-458.
Masdiantini, P., & Warasniasih, N. M. S. (2020). Laporan Keuangan dan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan. JIA:Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 5(1), 196-220. https://doi.org/10.23887/jia.v5i1.25119.
Mulyani, L., Sulindawati, N. L. G. E., Wahyuni, M. A. (2018). Analisis Perbandingan Ketepatan Prediksi Financial Distress Perusahaan Menggunakan Metode Altman, Springate, Zmjiewski, dan Grover (Studi pada Perusahaan Retail yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2015-2017). Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Akuntansi (JIMAT), 9(2). https://doi.org/10.23887/jimat.v10i1.20543.
Munawarah, M., Wijaya, A., Fransisca, C., Felicia, F., Kavita, K. (2019). Ketepatan Altman, Zmijewski, Grover, dan Fulmer menentukan Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Trade dan Service. Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi, 3(2), 278-288. http://10.33395/owner.v3i2.170.
Munawir, S. (2010). Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Cetakan ke 15 (4nd ed.). Yogyakarta: Liberty.
Nisa, K., Yulianto, M. R., Setiyono, W. P. (2022). Analisis Perbandingan Tingkat Akurasi Prediksi Kebangkrutan Metode Altman Z-Score, Grover, dan Zmijewski. Surplus: Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Ekonomi, Manajemen, dan Akuntansi, 2(1), 23-35. https://doi.org/10.35449/surplus.v2i1.488.
Noviandani, N., Putri, M. S. A., & Ardhina, B. Y. (2018). Analisis Altman Z-Score untuk Memprediksi Kebangkrutan pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sektor Barang Konsumsi di Indonesia. The National Conference on Management and Business (NCMAB).
Oktaviandri, A., Firli, A., & Iradianty, A. (2017). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan dengan Metode Altman, Springate, Ohlson, dan Grover pada Perusahaan di Sektor Pertanian Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2011-2015. Majalah Ilmiah UNIKOM, 15(1), 71-77 http://10.34010/miu.v15i1.278.
Olengga, P., & Fauzi, F. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Financial Distress pada Industri Semen Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Bina Manajemen, 3(1), 47-57. http://10.33557/jibm.v3i1.828.
Peter, P., Herlina, H., & Wiraatmaja, J. (2021). Analisis Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Melalui Perbandingan Model Altman Z-Score, Model Springate, dan Model Fulmer pada Industri Semen di Indonesia. ULTIMA Management, 13(2), 368-278. https://doi.org/10.31937/manajemen.v13i2.2313.
Prastowo, D. J. (2015). Analisis Laporan Keuangan: Konsep dan Aplikasi (2nd ed.). Yogyakarta: UPP AMP YKPN.
Primasari, N. S. (2017). Analisis Altman Z-Score, Grover Score, Springate, dan Zmijewski sebagai Signaling Financial Distress (Studi Empiris Industri Barang-barang Konsumsi di Indonesia). Accounting and Management Journal, 1(1), https://doi.org/10.33086/amj.v1i1.70.
Sapari, L, Suharsono, D., & Torano, N. (2022). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan pada PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul. MUSAMUS: Journal of Business & Management, 4(2), 320-334. https://doi.org/10.35724/mjbm.v4i2.4266.
Saputra, I., Hermanto, W.C., & Azmi, Z. (2021). Analisis Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Metode Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, Foster, dan Grover pada Bank Mandiri, Tbk. Research in Accounting Journal (RAJ), 1(3), 431-439. https://doi.org/10.37385/raj.v1i3.312.
Shalih, R. A., & Kusumawati, F. (2019). Prediction of Financial Distress in Manufacturing Company: A Comparative Analysis of Springate Model and Fulmer Model. Journal of Auditing, Finance, and Forensic Accounting, 7(2), 63-72. https:// doi.org/10.21107/jaffa.v7i2.6717.
Siswanto, P. R. & Ramadan, S. A. (2021). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Model Altman, Springate, dan Zmijewski pada Perusahaan Farmasi. Jurnal Akuntansi, Keuangan, Pajak, dan Informasi (JAKPI), 1(2), 44-63.
Springate, G. L. (1978). Predicting the Possibility of Failure in a Canadian Firm: A Discriminant Analysis. Simon Fraser University.
Sudrajat, M. A., & Wijayanti, E. (2019). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan ( Financial Distress) dengan Perbandingan Model Altman, Zmijewski, dan Grover. INVENTORY: Jurnal Akuntansi, 3(2), 116-130. http://doi.org/10.25273/inventory.v3i2.5240.
Sugiono, A. U. (2016). Panduan Praktis Dasar Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Edisi Revisi. Jakarta: Grasindo.
Sugiyono, S. (2016). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif dan R&D. Bandung: Alfabeta.
Sumarna, E., Yazid, H., & Ichwanudin, W. (2020). Analisis Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan Altman, Zmijewski, Springate, Grover pada Industri Manufaktur Sub Sektor Kimia yang Terdaftar di IDX Tahun 2013-2018. Jurnal Riset Bisnis dan Manajemen Tirtayasa (JRBMT), 4(2), 109-122. http://dx.doi.org/10.48181/jrbmt.v4i2.10006.
Sumendap, R., Murni, S., & Unti, V. N. (2019). Perbandingan Kinerja Keuangan dengan Menggunakan Metode Altman Z-Score dan Springate S-Score (Pada Indusri Semen di BEI Periode 2014-2018). Jurnal EMBE, 7(4), 5167-5174. https:// doi.org/10.35794/emba.v7i4.26028.
Wahyuni, S. F., & Rubiyah, R. (2021). Analisis Financial Distress Menggunakan Metode Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, dan Grover pada Perusahaan Sektor Perkebunan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Mannegio: Jurnal Ilmiah Magister Manajemen, 4(1), 62-72. https://doi.org/10.30596/maneggio.v4i1.6714.
Winarto, Y. (2022). Retrieved November 7, 2022, from: https://newssetup.kontan.co.id/news/selama-pandemi-industri-farmasi-catatkan-penjualan-capai-rp-95-triliun?page=all.
Yanwardhana, E. (2021). Harga Batu Bara Terbang, Produsen Semen Ramai Matikan Pabrik! Retrieved from: https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20211025095451-4-286216/harga-batu-bara-terbang-produsen-semen-ramai-matikan-pabrik.
Yuliana, D. (2018). Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Dari Aspek Keuangan Dengan Berbagai Metode. Malang: UIN-Maliki Press.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with Jurnal Maksipreneur agree to the following terms:
Authors retain copyright and grant the Jurnal Maksipreneur right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share (copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format) and adapt (remix, transform, and build upon the material) the work for any purpose, even commercially with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in Jurnal Maksipreneur.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in Jurnal Maksipreneur. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
